Timeline
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This section needs contributors. Edit this page to help build it out.
Context
Not all AI impacts arrive at once. Understanding the likely sequencing helps us prioritise policy responses and investment.
Key areas to explore
- Near-term (2026–2027) — Changes already underway or imminent
- Medium-term (2028–2030) — Second-order effects and broader adoption
- Longer-term (2031–2035) — Structural economic transformation
- Wildcards — Potential breakthroughs or disruptions that could accelerate timelines
- NZ-specific timing — How our adoption curves differ from larger economies
Questions for contributors
- Which AI impacts are already being felt in NZ workplaces?
- What technology milestones would accelerate displacement timelines?
- How should uncertainty about timing affect policy design?